期刊刊名：Asian Journal of Arts and Sciences 　 卷期：1卷1期

篇名出版日期：2010年6月1日

作者：Chwng-yu Lee, BRYAN K. EPPERSON, EDWARD D. WALKER,KIMBERLY SIGNS

語言：English

關鍵字：space-time modeling,Space-time autoregressive moving average,infectious diseases,West Nile virus

被點閱次數：1次

閱讀時間：22sec

摘要：
We apply the Space-Time AutoRegressive Moving Average (STARMA) modeling methods in an investigation of the spreading dynamics of a West Nile virus (WNV) epidemic in crows in the Detroit Metro area in 2002. The data fit very closely those expected from a purely STAR (Space-Time AutoRegressive) process having low spatial and temporal orders. The model can be used to characterize the past and possibly even predict the future dynamics of spreading behavior and, most importantly, to provide information about the factors which govern the spreading behavior. Use of the STARMA model allows estimation of the rate of spread of WNV at different spatial scales and thus characterization of the spatial and temporal scales expected. Determination of spatial-temporal autoregressive parameters using STARMA holds considerable promise for characterizing emerging infectious diseases.

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